Main Highlights
- The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a slight decline against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of key economic data.
- Australia’s Wage Price Index for Q3 remained unchanged at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.4% annually, meeting market expectations.
- The US Dollar held its ground due to diminishing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.
- Recent Australian employment data showed a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3% and a significant increase in employment figures, potentially influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance.
- Technical analysis suggests the AUD/USD pair is consolidating, with immediate support and resistance levels identified.
AUD/USD Dips After Wage Data, US Dollar Holds Firm
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has seen a slight retreat against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, reversing some of the gains from the prior session. The AUD/USD pair is exhibiting subdued movement after the release of the medium-impact Wage Price Index data for the third quarter. This economic indicator provides insights into labor costs and market tightness, which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) closely monitors.
Australia’s seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index for the third quarter rose by 0.8% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This figure matched the previous period’s growth and aligned with market forecasts. On an annual basis, wages increased by 3.4%, also consistent with both the prior quarter’s pace and prevailing market expectations.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the Minutes from its November monetary policy meeting. The minutes indicated that board members are signaling a more balanced policy approach, suggesting that the cash rate could remain unchanged for an extended period if incoming economic data proves stronger than anticipated.
💡 The AUD might find renewed support if expectations for a cautious approach from the RBA intensify, particularly driven by robust domestic employment figures. As of November 18, ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate Futures for December 2025 indicated an 8% probability of a rate cut by the RBA at an upcoming meeting, reflecting a 3.35% rate from the current 3.60%.
US Dollar Strength Amid Fading Fed Rate Cut Bets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar’s performance against a basket of major currencies, is maintaining its position around 99.60. The dollar is benefiting from a decrease in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool now suggests approximately a 49% probability that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark interest rate in December, a notable decrease from the 67% probability priced in last week.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson commented on Monday that risks to the labor market now appear more significant than upside risks to inflation. He emphasized the importance of the Fed proceeding cautiously with any further rate reductions. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also stated on Friday that monetary policy should lean against demand growth, indicating that current Fed policy is modestly restrictive, which he deemed appropriate.
Recent US labor data has provided a mixed picture. The Department of Labor reported 232,000 initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18, with continuing claims rising slightly to 1.957 million. However, an earlier ADP report indicated that employers cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week during the four weeks ending November 1. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cautioned that some October data might not fully materialize due to disruptions during a government shutdown.
📊 In contrast to the mixed US data, Australia released its October Unemployment Rate on Thursday, which fell to 4.3% from 4.5% in September, surpassing market expectations of 4.4%. Furthermore, the Employment Change figure for October reached 42.2K, a significant increase from the revised 12.8K in the prior month and well above the market forecast of 20K.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Consolidation Near Nine-Day EMA
The AUD/USD pair is currently trading around the 0.6490 level. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the pair is consolidating within a defined rectangular range, indicating a period of sideways price action. The current price is trading below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which suggests that a bearish bias remains in play in the short term.
📍 On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may encounter significant support near the lower boundary of its rectangle, around the 0.6470 mark. Following this, the next key support level is the five-month low of 0.6414, which was recorded on August 21.
📌 The immediate resistance is observed at the psychological level of 0.6500, followed by the nine-day EMA located at 0.6514. A decisive break above this combined resistance zone could potentially boost short-term price momentum, paving the way for the pair to target the upper boundary of the rectangle, near 0.6630.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.29% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.08% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.06% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.24% | 0.00% | |
| JPY | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.19% | -0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.11% | 0.11% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | -0.29% | -0.30% | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.00% | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Economic Indicator
Wage Price Index (QoQ)
The Wage Price Index, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, serves as a key indicator of labor cost inflation and the overall tightness of the labor market. It is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia when formulating interest rate decisions. A higher-than-expected reading is generally considered positive or bullish for the AUD, while a lower reading is viewed as negative or bearish.
Last release:
Wed Nov 19, 2025 00:30
Frequency:
Quarterly
Actual:
0.8%
Consensus:
0.8%
Previous:
0.8%
Source:
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Expert Summary
The AUD/USD pair is currently experiencing a period of consolidation. While recent Australian employment data has been strong, reinforcing the potential for a cautious RBA stance, the US Dollar remains supported by shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic releases from both countries.
