Bitcoin Correction Possible: Target $96K-$100K

Main Highlights

• Bitcoin faces potential correction to $96,500–$100,000 if the $110,000 support level breaks.
• On-chain and technical indicators suggest a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a market trend reversal.
• Geopolitical tensions and corporate restrictions have influenced recent market volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant price dip over the weekend, and its recovery attempts appeared to be weakening by Tuesday. The cryptocurrency fell approximately 4.65% to trade around the $110,000 mark. This decline mirrored a broader slump in global equity markets, exacerbated by China’s imposition of restrictions on five U.S. companies linked to a major South Korean shipbuilder, with further retaliatory measures hinted at.

💡 The $110,000 level has proven to be a critical pivot point for Bitcoin throughout 2025, frequently alternating between resistance and support.

Historically, Bitcoin has seen substantial corrections ranging from 19% to 30% following rejections at this $110,000 resistance level. Conversely, rebounds from this zone after July have historically fueled rallies between 12% and 15%. This persistent volatility underscores the importance of monitoring this key price area.

📍 Understanding the potential downside risk is crucial for traders aiming to navigate current market conditions.

Bitcoin’s Broadening Wedge Pattern Hints at Potential $100,000 Target

Several analyses indicate that the likelihood of Bitcoin’s price declining towards the $100,000 level increases significantly if the immediate support at $110,000 fails to hold.

One such observation comes from chartist BitBull, who highlighted a giant bullish channel on X (formerly Twitter). This pattern, characterized by a broadening wedge, shows BTC price action fluctuating within its boundaries.

✅ This pattern suggests a period of consolidation or correction within a larger trend.

As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was observed to be in a correction phase after testing the upper trendline of this wedge as resistance. Past instances of similar corrections within broadening wedges have typically found support near the channel’s lower trendline. This projected support zone currently aligns with the $100,000 to $103,000 range.

📊 This area also gains technical significance as it overlaps with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA) and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level, reinforcing its potential as a key target zone for price consolidation.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Potential $96,500 Target

On-chain data from Glassnode, specifically their MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands model, suggests a further potential downside target. Bitcoin is currently trading below its +0.5 standard deviation band (+0.5σ band), which is positioned around $119,000.

📌 The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands model is a valuable tool for assessing Bitcoin’s market price relative to the average purchase price of its holders—often referred to as the realized price.

Historically, when Bitcoin’s price breaks below the +0.5σ band, it has often reverted towards the mean band (currently around $96,500). A comparable mean reversion phase was observed between December 2024 and April 2025, where BTC declined from the +0.5σ level (approximately $66,980) to the mean band (around $53,900) before experiencing a significant rebound.

⚡ This historical pattern suggests that the current price action might be a healthy cooling-off period within a larger bull market, designed to purge excess leverage and correct inflated valuations before the next upward price movement.

However, a sustained drop below this $96,500 mean reversion target could potentially signal a shift towards a bear market, with the next significant downside target identified around the $74,000 level.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.