Bitcoin Price: US Demand vs. Volatility Signals

Main Highlights

• US spot demand continues to support Bitcoin above $110,000, indicated by a positive Coinbase Premium Index.

• Recent movement of 7,300 dormant BTC suggests some long-term holders may be taking profits.

• Significant Bitcoin mobilization (364,000 BTC) on derivatives exchanges indicates potential for increased volatility.

• Short-term holders are actively buying dips, contributing to market resilience.

Bitcoin (BTC) is maintaining a strong presence above the $110,000 mark, largely due to robust spot demand originating from US investors. The Coinbase Premium Index, a key indicator of price differentials between Coinbase and global exchanges, has remained positive throughout the recent market turbulence and sell-offs.

This indicator reached its highest point since March 2024 on Friday, hitting 0.18. This surge suggests that significant spot buy orders were executed within the $100,000 to $110,000 range, even amidst market-wide panic. A consistently positive premium typically signals sustained buying interest from the US, which bolsters the near-term resilience of the market.

💡 This sustained US buying interest is a crucial factor in understanding Bitcoin’s price stability during volatile periods.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant supports this observation, showing rapid accumulation by short-term holders (STHs). These are wallets holding BTC for less than a month. Following the recent price correction, the supply held by STHs increased from 1.6 million BTC to over 1.87 million BTC in just a few days, indicating aggressive purchasing behavior during price dips. 📍 This active dip-buying from STHs is a strong bullish signal, suggesting confidence in a quick recovery.

However, there are signs that older coins are beginning to move, which could introduce some short-term market friction. Approximately 7,343 BTC, held for two to three years, were reactivated and moved on-chain this week. This activity suggests that some long-term holders might be capitalizing on current prices to take profits or rebalance their portfolios. 📊 The reactivation of older coins is a signal to watch, as it can indicate shifts in long-term holder sentiment.

Crypto analyst Maartunn noted that Binance’s net taker volume points to ongoing selling pressure. Furthermore, the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which tracks whether recent spenders are selling at a profit or loss, remains below 1. This reinforces the idea that active profit-taking is prevalent among STHs. ✅ This dynamic can temporarily limit significant recovery momentum, despite strong accumulation from other market participants.

Conflicting Scenarios from Derivatives Market Activity

Data from CryptoQuant also presents a dual narrative for Bitcoin, highlighting a divergence between steady accumulation and approaching short-term volatility. While the 30-day Netflow Simple Moving Average (SMA) shows a significant historical outflow of 5,620 BTC—indicating confidence from long-term holders and a decrease in exchange supply—an opposing trend is emerging in the derivatives market. ⚡ This presents an interesting case of contrasting market signals.

Between Thursday and Wednesday, approximately 364,000 BTC was mobilized within the internal wallets of derivatives exchanges. The majority of these movements occurred on Bitfinex (210,000 BTC), Bybit (108,000 BTC), and Binance (37,000 BTC). These movements typically indicate that traders are funding their margin accounts with existing capital in preparation for substantial leveraged positions. 📌 Understanding these on-chain flows is crucial for anticipating market movements.

This confluence of tightening supply dynamics and increasing activity in the derivatives space suggests a period of heightened volatility may be on the horizon. While the broader market trend remains bullish, the current short-term setup indicates a potential inflection point for BTC. 💡 Traders often use derivatives markets to amplify their positions, which can lead to rapid price swings.