Key Takeaways
- Recent Bitcoin whale selling pressure is being characterized by analysts as typical of a late-stage crypto cycle, rather than a sign of a market top.
- Data suggests a steady rise in Bitcoin distribution from long-term holders, consistent with bull-market profit-taking, not an OG whale dump.
- While some indicators suggest a potential market bottom, experts caution that the traditional four-year market cycle might not hold sway as Bitcoin evolves.
- New demand dynamics from ETFs and corporate treasuries could alter Bitcoin’s historical market cycle patterns.
Bitcoin Whale Selling: A Normal Cycle Phase, Say Analysts
Bitcoin’s recent wave of selling pressure from large holders, often referred to as whales, is a typical phenomenon observed during a late-stage cryptocurrency cycle. Analysts from Glassnode suggest this activity should be viewed with the same perspective as in previous cycles and may not indicate a market peak.
On Thursday, a notable Bitcoin whale, identified by blockchain analytics platform Arkham as belonging to trader Owen Gunden, transferred 2,400 BTC, valued at approximately $237 million, to the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. This move adds to a recent trend of significant Bitcoin holders appearing to shift their holdings.
However, Glassnode analysts argue that common narratives like OG Whales Dumping oversimplify the situation. Their analysis of on-chain data indicates a more nuanced picture.
Data from Glassnode shows that the monthly average spending by long-term Bitcoin holders has significantly increased. It rose from over 12,000 BTC per day in early July to around 26,000 BTC per day as of Thursday. This consistent and evenly spaced distribution pattern is interpreted by Glassnode as normal bull-market behavior rather than a specific OG dumping event.
“This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales.”
Glassnode further commented, Long-term holders have been realizing profits throughout this cycle, just as they did in every previous one.
Late-Cycle Signals and Market Stability
Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, views these whale sales as part of a structured cycle flow, characterized by steady profit rotation rather than panic. He suggests that rising realized gains and resilient liquidity are often indicators of a late-cycle phase.
Liu emphasized that this late-cycle phase does not automatically imply the market has topped. The crucial factor, according to him, is the presence of sufficient buyers to absorb the new supply entering the market.
“Late cycle doesn’t mean the market is capped, it means momentum has cooled while macro and liquidity steer the ship. Fading rate-cut bets and short-term softness have slowed upside, not sunk it,” Liu explained.
“On-chain readings hint at a potential bottom. Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit ratio at 0.476 signals short-term lows may be forming, offering strategic positioning but it’s just one of many indicators that need to be tracked to confirm a market bottom.”
Current crypto market sentiment leans towards fear, with the broader market experiencing a slump. Analysts attribute this sentiment to macroeconomic factors, including traders moving towards assets perceived to have clearer exposure to economic policies and credit flows.
Historical Market Cycles and Potential Shifts
Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance at BTC Markets, noted that while isolated whale selling may not be significant, the current environment shows a noticeable lack of substantial buy-side support to absorb the selling pressure.
Despite this observation, Sherry believes it is premature to definitively declare a cycle peak, though he acknowledges it as a plausible scenario.
Historically, market tops in Bitcoin have occurred approximately every four years. Notable peaks include December 2017, about 1,067 days after the previous bottom, and November 2021, approximately 1,058 days after its low.
Sherry pointed out, The recent all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025, came 1,050 days from the bottom. From that view, it is plausible that we have already topped this cycle and are entering the early stages of a bear market.”
Evolving Market Dynamics and Future Cycles
Conversely, Sherry raised the point that the traditional four-year cycle concept isn’t bulletproof. He cited the limited historical data points and the continuous evolution of Bitcoin, driven by new demand dynamics from sources like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries.
“These buyers don’t trade cycles or follow the four-year rhythm. The appetite of these players has been weak recently, but that can change quickly,” he stated.
“Only time will tell whether we have just seen a cycle top. There are fundamental reasons why Bitcoin may no longer follow a four-year rhythm, but the strength of those fundamentals is being tested right now.”
Expert Summary
Current Bitcoin whale selling activity is viewed by some analysts as a standard late-cycle profit-taking phase, consistent with historical patterns. While traditional four-year market cycles suggest a potential peak might have occurred recently, evolving factors like institutional demand from ETFs could alter these historical trends, making future market behavior less predictable.
