Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) could see a 65% to 70% retracement in the next two years due to a lack of understanding among traders, according to Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital.
- Despite potential downturns, Budki forecasts Bitcoin could reach $1 million within a decade, driven by both speculation and real-world utility.
- Some analysts, like Arthur Hayes, argue the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is becoming less relevant, with macroeconomic factors playing a larger role.
- Increasing institutional adoption is seen by some as a stabilizing force, while others believe BTC remains a risk-on asset subject to cycles.
Bitcoin’s Cyclical Future and Market Perspectives
Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to experience cyclical booms and busts, anticipating a potential drawdown of up to 70% during the next market downturn. He attributes this projected retracement, estimated to be between 65% and 70% over the next two years, to a lack of understanding among traders regarding the asset they hold. Budki shared his insights at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai.
“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000. The problem is that people don’t know its utility, and when people buy assets that they don’t know and understand, they sell them first; that is where the selling pressure comes from,” Budki stated.
Despite these short-term concerns, Budki remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential. He forecasts that BTC could reach or exceed $1 million per coin within the next ten years. This growth is expected to be fueled by a combination of price speculation and, more significantly, the increasing adoption of real-world BTC use cases.
Evolving Bitcoin Market Dynamics
Industry experts, analysts, and investors are continuously debating the timeline for Bitcoin to reach a seven-figure price. A key area of discussion is whether the market dynamics that have historically defined BTC’s cycles since its inception in 2009 remain relevant in the current market environment of 2025.
The Debate Over the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Some prominent figures in the crypto space have questioned the continued validity of the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle. Arthur Hayes, market analyst and co-founder of BitMEX, has suggested that this cycle may be dead. Hayes posited that Bitcoin’s price is now more heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates and the growth of the money supply, rather than solely by its historical cyclical patterns.
💡 Other market observers point to the growing influence of institutional adoption as a sign of market maturation. The presence of large financial institutions is thought by some to act as a stabilizing force, potentially reducing price volatility and calming market fluctuations.
Collectively, financial institutions, governments, digital asset treasury companies, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and cryptocurrency exchanges hold more than 4 million BTC, representing approximately 20% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
📊 However, not all agree that the traditional cycles are obsolete. Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, expressed his view that the four-year cycle remains relevant. He explained that investors currently perceive BTC as a risk-on asset, even while acknowledging its potential as a store of value. This perception, he suggested, keeps it tethered to historical cyclical behaviors.
Expert Summary
Analyses suggest that Bitcoin’s future trajectory may involve significant cyclical fluctuations, with potential pullbacks influenced by trader understanding and broader economic conditions. While long-term price targets remain ambitious, discussion continues on whether traditional market cycles still dictate Bitcoin’s price movements amid increasing institutional involvement and evolving economic landscapes.