At a Glance
- Recent market weakness has led to a significant drop in Bitcoin (BTC) search interest and a decline in crypto sentiment to Fear.
- Bitwise analysts suggest that current selling pressure may have peaked, presenting potential buying opportunities, especially ahead of Q4.
- While smaller BTC holders are accumulating, miners have deposited a large amount of BTC to exchanges, and long-term holders have seen significant outflows.
- Despite mixed on-chain signals, Bitcoin’s stability around $110K suggests underlying demand may be absorbing selling pressure.
Recent declines in the Bitcoin (BTC) price appear to have tempered enthusiasm, as indicated by a fall in Google search interest to a multi-month low. Current sentiment readings align with typical conditions observed during bearish market phases, where caution tends to prevail across the broader cryptocurrency market.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to a Fear level of 24, marking its lowest point in a year and a sharp decrease from last week’s Greed reading of 71. This sentiment shift mirrors conditions seen in April, when Bitcoin experienced a brief dip below $74,000, and echoes previous cycles of market fatigue witnessed in 2018 and 2022. 💡 This widespread fear can often present unique opportunities for those with a longer-term perspective.
Panic Could Be an Opportunity in Bitcoin, According to Bitwise
Despite the pronounced drop in sentiment, analysts at Bitwise suggest that the current market environment favors accumulation rather than retreat. According to Director and Head of Research André Dragosch, Senior Research Associate Max Shannon, and Research Analyst Ayush Tripathi, the recent correction was primarily influenced by external factors. These include renewed US–China trade tensions, which have triggered a broad-based risk aversion across global financial markets.
Bitwise’s weekly crypto market compass report highlights that this correction was exacerbated by a record wave of futures liquidations. Bitcoin’s perpetual futures open interest experienced a substantial plunge of nearly $11 billion, representing the strongest decline on record. 📌 Understanding these liquidation cycles is crucial for anticipating market turning points.
Dragosch indicated that this forced liquidation event has now meaningfully exhausted selling pressure, potentially creating a contrarian buying window, similar to the Yen carry trade unwind experienced in August 2024. ⚡ Such events often precede periods of significant price recovery.
Dragosch further noted that their proprietary Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has dropped to its lowest level since that particular period. Historically, such extreme lows have often signaled favorable entry points preceding seasonal strength, particularly in the last quarter of the year (Q4). 📈 Historically, Q4 has often been a strong period for Bitcoin.
Smaller Bitcoin Holders Increase Accumulation Amid Miner Activity
On-chain data provides further support for this perspective. Glassnode reported that smaller Bitcoin holders, with balances ranging from 1 to 1,000 BTC, have significantly ramped up their accumulation in recent days. This activity has helped offset reduced buying from larger holders. ✅ This trend suggests a renewed confidence among retail and mid-tier investors, even as market volatility continues.
However, other indicators present a more complex scenario. Data from CryptoQuant indicated that since last Thursday, miners have deposited approximately 51,000 BTC (valued at over $5.7 billion) to exchanges. This represents the largest inflow since July. 📊 Miners typically move holdings to exchanges for liquidation or hedging purposes, so such significant deposits can precede increased selling pressure.
Similarly, long-term holders may also be reducing their positions. Data suggests that 265,715 BTC has been sold over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly outflow since January 2025. 📍 It’s important to monitor both accumulation and distribution patterns from different investor cohorts to gauge overall market sentiment.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s resilience around the $110,000 level suggests that institutional or Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) demand may be absorbing the excess supply. Taken together, these opposing flows indicate that the market is transitioning from a state of capitulation towards reaccumulation. This is a setup that Bitwise analysts view as foundational for a bullish Q4. 💡 Watching how these diverse market participants interact will be key in the coming weeks.
This article reflects the views of the source and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. All investments and trading activities carry inherent risks, and individuals should conduct their own thorough research before making any decisions.
Fundfa Insight
Current market conditions for Bitcoin present a mixed but potentially optimistic picture. While fear abounds and macroeconomic factors contribute to selling pressure, on-chain data suggests accumulation by smaller holders. The contrasting signals from miners and long-term holders highlight the complexity, but the stability around key price levels indicates underlying demand, potentially setting the stage for positive performance in Q4.