Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) retreated from overnight highs above $116,000 to trade below $115,000, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady despite market expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Analysts maintained a positive outlook, projecting fresh all-time highs for BTC and significant gains in select tokens such as HYPE, SOL, and ENA. Attention has increasingly shifted toward smaller-cap assets, with tokens like MYX, HASH, PENGU, PUMP, and MNT each posting gains exceeding 10% this week.
“The CPI plus jobs data created a classic ‘good news/bad data’ scenario: inflation came in higher, but weaker labor figures sustained the rate-cut narrative — a net positive for crypto in the short term,” said Timothy Misir, Head of Research at BRN, in an email statement.
Derivatives Positioning
Open interest in futures contracts tied to the top 10 cryptocurrencies rose between 3% and 5% over the past 24 hours, as growing expectations of Fed rate cuts encouraged traders to increase risk exposure. Despite this, the market does not appear overheated, with annualized perpetual funding rates for major cryptocurrencies remaining near 10%. Positive funding rates typically indicate bullish sentiment, while excessively high levels can signal speculative excess.
PENGU, one of the strongest performers over the past week, saw its open interest reach a record 7.78 billion coins, reinforcing its recent price rally. Funding rates for PENGU are moderately elevated at around 15%. In contrast, smaller tokens such as SKY and PYTH are experiencing deeply negative funding rates, reflecting a market bias toward short positions. CME’s bitcoin futures have shown a rebound in open interest after several weeks of decline, while ether futures OI has dropped to a one-month low of 1.78 million ETH. These divergent patterns may suggest renewed trader focus on BTC.
Options Market Trends
Open interest in BTC and ETH options remains at multi-month highs. On Deribit, both BTC and ETH options continue to show a preference for put contracts through the December expiry, even as traders price in approximately five U.S. interest rate cuts by July of next year.
Security Incident: Thorchain Founder Hacked
Oliver Knight reports that one of Thorchain’s founders — a decentralized network enabling cross-chain asset transfers — was hacked this week after being deceived by a deepfake video call on Zoom. “Ok so this attack finally manifested itself. Had an old Metamask cleaned out,” wrote JPThor on X. Blockchain security firm PeckShield confirmed that $1.2 million was stolen from a Thorchain user, while on-chain investigator ZachXBT linked the attacker to North Korean hacking groups.
Earlier this year, Thorchain was identified as one of North Korea’s preferred laundering channels, with researchers estimating that 80% of the proceeds from a $1.4 billion Bybit hack were funneled through Thorchain and similar protocols such as Vultisig. The Thorchain token (RUNE) is currently trading near $1.28, down 14% over the past month and more than 90% below its March 2024 peak of $12.95. The breach combined social engineering and phishing tactics — two methods responsible for much of the $2.5 billion stolen by hackers in the first half of 2025.
Fundfa Analysis
The combination of macroeconomic shifts, such as anticipated Fed rate cuts, and heightened derivatives activity suggests a potentially volatile period ahead for crypto markets. Meanwhile, the Thorchain hack underscores persistent security vulnerabilities in DeFi, which could influence investor sentiment and regulatory scrutiny in the sector.