Bitcoin Bottoms as Gold Pulls Back: Analysts Predict Rally

Key Takeaways:

• Recent analysis suggests that a pullback in gold prices could precede a rebound in Bitcoin’s value.
• Some analysts maintain that Bitcoin could reach between $150,000 and $165,000 by the end of the year, based on technical indicators.
• Gold has reached record highs but is showing signs of overextension, while Bitcoin’s RSI mirrors historical bottom patterns.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing potential signs of establishing a bottom, coinciding with what appears to be an overextended rally in its traditional asset counterpart, gold (XAU).

Bitcoin Hints at “Generational Bottom” as Gold Consolidates

Gold’s ascent appears to have paused after reaching an all-time high near $4,380 per ounce. Since its peak, the precious metal has seen a decline of approximately 2.90%, although it remains up over 62.25% year-to-date.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold has consistently remained above 70 for the past month, typically indicating an overbought condition and a potential for profit-taking.

In contrast, Bitcoin has experienced a notable increase of nearly 4% during the recent correction period in gold. This recovery follows Bitcoin’s dip to its lowest levels in four months, near $103,535. Bitcoin’s RSI is currently at its lowest point since April, which some analysts note is a pattern that has historically preceded significant rebounds of 60% or more.
This inverse correlation has led some market observers to suggest that Bitcoin’s price may be nearing a bottom.

Prominent analyst Pat, for instance, has expressed anticipation of a “generational bottom” for Bitcoin, referencing its performance relative to gold over the last four years. This perspective is supported by the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which has fallen to levels historically associated with market bottoms, similar to those observed in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Each of these prior instances was followed by significant Bitcoin rallies, ranging from 100% to 600%.

As of mid-October, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has again fallen below -2.5. This metric suggests that BTC may be undervalued relative to gold, particularly after the latter’s recent surge to $4,380. This could potentially signal the start of Bitcoin’s next significant upward trend.

Analyst Alex Wacy has also drawn parallels between gold’s current pullback and its pattern in 2020, a period that coincided with a local bottom for Bitcoin. The key question remains whether gold’s current consolidation will again serve as a precursor to a bullish reversal for BTC.

💡 Understanding these historical correlations can be crucial for anticipating potential market shifts.

HSBC Maintains Bullish Gold Outlook

Despite the growing sentiment that gold’s record-breaking run might be slowing, HSBC has reiterated its positive forecast for the precious metal. The bank anticipates that gold could potentially reach as high as $5,000 per ounce by 2026.

HSBC’s bullish projection is underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar. These factors are predicted to sustain strong demand for gold.

Reports suggest that this particular rally is expected to be driven by long-term investors seeking portfolio stability, rather than short-term speculative trading, distinguishing it from previous market upswings.

While gold’s rally in 2025 has seen several instances of overbought conditions, each subsequent dip has been followed by higher price levels.

This consistent pattern reflects sustained investor confidence amidst prevalent geopolitical and monetary uncertainty, factors HSBC believes will continue to support gold’s upward trajectory into 2026.

The outlook for Bitcoin also remains highly optimistic. Analysts at JPMorgan have projected that BTC could reach $165,000 in 2025, citing its current undervaluation relative to gold.

Similarly, analyst Charles Edwards has indicated that a definitive breakout above the $120,000 mark could very rapidly propel Bitcoin towards $150,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.