Key Takeaways
- China’s top officials are meeting to finalize national development strategies amid global instability.
- Uncertainty surrounds Xi Jinping’s long-term leadership and the opaque process of selecting a successor.
- Xi faces a dilemma: naming a successor could empower a rival, while delaying risks his legacy and party stability.
- Technological innovation and advanced manufacturing are central to China’s global leadership ambitions.
- The secretive nature of China’s succession planning suggests a potentially unpredictable future leadership dynamic.
China’s Elite Convenes Amidst Global Uncertainty
As China’s leadership convenes behind closed doors in Beijing, a crucial planning session is underway to fortify the nation’s resilience in a volatile global landscape. However, two fundamental questions about the country’s future remain implicitly present, even if unaddressed: the duration of Xi Jinping’s leadership and the identity of his successor.
Xi has led China for thirteen years, consolidating power to an extent not witnessed since Mao Zedong. With no apparent intention to step down, the longevity of his rule could inadvertently create political instability due to the absence of a clear heir apparent or a defined timeline for designating one.
With each passing year, the uncertainty deepens regarding who would assume leadership in the event of Xi’s incapacitation, and whether that successor would maintain or alter his stringent policies.
💡 Long-serving leaders often grapple with the challenge of selecting a successor, balancing the risk of empowering a rival against the potential damage to their legacy and party unity if no clear plan is in place. At 72, Xi must identify potential heirs among considerably younger officials who still need to demonstrate their capabilities and earn his trust.
The Delicate Balancing Act of Succession
Should Xi eventually select a successor, unwavering loyalty to him and his agenda will likely be a non-negotiable prerequisite. He has publicly cited the Soviet Union’s misstep in appointing Mikhail Gorbachev, whose leadership ultimately led to its dissolution. Xi recently underscored his intolerance for disloyalty with the military’s announcement of nine senior officers facing prosecution for corruption and abuse of power.
Xi almost surely realizes the importance of succession, but he also realizes that it’s incredibly difficult to signal a successor without undermining his own power, said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. The immediate political and economic crises that he faces could end up continually outweighing the priority of getting around to executing a succession plan.
Speculation regarding Xi’s future is highly sensitive and subject to censorship within China. Only a select few officials are likely privy to his private thoughts on the matter. Foreign diplomats, analysts, and investors will be intently observing the four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, which commenced Monday and brings together hundreds of senior officials, for any subtle indications.
Focus on National Strength and Global Leadership
The gathering, traditionally held in seclusion, is expected to endorse a five-year development blueprint for China. Xi has made achieving global leadership in technological innovation and advanced manufacturing a cornerstone of his administration, a goal likely to be prominently featured. He and his government have voiced confidence in their strategy to counter pressures from tariffs and export controls imposed by the United States.
📍 A report released last month by senior Chinese lawmakers stated, At the heart of strategic rivalry among the great powers is a contest for comprehensive strength… Only by vigorously upgrading our own economic power, scientific and technological strength, and overall national power can we win the strategic initiative.
In theory, this week’s meeting could provide insights into China’s next generation of leadership if Xi decides to promote younger officials to more significant positions. However, many analysts anticipate that any major personnel changes will be deferred, possibly until after the commencement of his likely fourth five-year term in 2027, and potentially even longer.
Then I think it has to start looming larger, if not in his own mind, then in the people around him, commented Jonathan Czin, a researcher on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution, who has explored Xi’s succession scenarios. Even if the people in his immediate orbit don’t start jockeying for position for themselves, they’re going to be jockeying on behalf of their own proteges.
⚡ Especially as someone who spends so much time studying the lessons of China’s dynastic cycles and the history of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Xi knows that the succession is a major issue he must think through, said Christopher K. Johnson, president of China Strategies Group and a former U.S. intelligence official specializing in China.
Navigating Historical Precedents and Future Challenges
Xi has witnessed firsthand the destabilizing effects of succession struggles within the Communist Party. His own father, a high-ranking official, was purged by Mao. During the 1989 pro-democracy protests, Xi observed as internal party divisions contributed to national upheaval, culminating in Deng Xiaoping’s removal of the General Secretary, Zhao Ziyang, and appointment of Jiang Zemin as his successor.
For the present, Xi appears convinced that China’s ascent hinges on his continued leadership. He disregarded the precedent of orderly retirement set by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, and orchestrated the abolition of the presidential two-term limit in 2018, thereby enabling himself to remain in power indefinitely as the head of the party, state, and military.
However, each year Xi remains in office makes it increasingly challenging to identify an heir who is both young enough for decades of leadership and sufficiently experienced to command respect while operating under his shadow.
📊 Xi has strategically appointed long-standing allies to the Politburo Standing Committee, the seven-member pinnacle of party authority. These individuals are generally in their 60s or older, likely placing them beyond the age for plausible succession in the coming years. For context, Xi himself was 54 when he joined the Standing Committee in 2007, signaling his favored status for leadership.
Even officials slated for promotion to central leadership roles at the upcoming Communist Party Congress in 2027 are likely considered too advanced in age to succeed Xi, according to Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California San Diego specializing in Chinese elite politics.
Given Xi’s probable tenure for another term or potentially longer, his successor might emerge from officials born in the 1970s, possibly holding positions within provincial administrations or central government agencies. The party has been actively promoting some younger officials who fit this demographic profile, noted Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan who studies the Communist Party.
Xi also seems concerned about leaders who have not been adequately tested by hardship or significant responsibility. He has cautioned that minor flaws in officials can escalate into major threats during times of crisis, likening it to a small crack can become a massive collapse in a dam.
📌 Xi is highly distrustful of others, especially those officials who have only an indirect relationship with him, Wang stated. As he grows older and has fewer connections to the generation of his possible successors, this factor will become more important.
In the years ahead, the upper echelons of the party may experience increased personnel fluidity as Xi rigorously assesses and potentially discards candidates for leadership. Behind the scenes, intense competition for influence and political survival is expected among officials within his inner circle.
This will make the succession process more fragmented, because he can’t possibly just have one designated successor, Shih observed. It has to be a collective to choose from, and that probably also means they will have low-grade power struggles with each other.
Final Thoughts
China’s political future is closely tied to the leadership decisions of Xi Jinping, particularly concerning the complex and sensitive issue of succession. The current gathering of Communist Party officials aims to solidify national strategies, but uncertainties surrounding leadership transitions remain a significant undercurrent, potentially shaping China’s trajectory for years to come.