Coinbase analysts remain optimistic for Q4, citing resilient liquidity, a favorable macro backdrop, and supportive regulatory signals as factors that could sustain the crypto rally. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to benefit from macro tailwinds and could outperform expectations, analysts David Duong and Colin Basco wrote in a Wednesday report.
“Barring a shock to energy prices, we think the immediate risk to disrupting the current U.S. monetary policy path is quite low,” they noted. On-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is also expected to provide a price floor.
One lingering concern is seasonality: BTC saw six straight September declines against the dollar from 2017 to 2022. However, this pattern did not occur in 2023 and 2024. The analysts stressed that the small sample size and wide dispersion of outcomes limit the usefulness of seasonal indicators.
More important, they argue, is the stage of the DAT cycle. Publicly disclosed DATs hold over 1 million BTC (~$110B), 4.9 million ETH (~$21.3B), and 8.9 million SOL (~$1.8B) as of Sept. 10. Late entrants are now chasing altcoins further down the risk curve, putting markets in a “player-versus-player” phase that favors large-cap tokens but may soon lead to consolidation among smaller DAT players.
Heading into the final quarter, Coinbase maintains a constructive outlook, expecting strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, and regulatory momentum to keep crypto markets well supported.
Fundfa View
Coinbase’s analysis suggests the current bull market still has room to run, supported by macro stability, institutional demand, and the DAT cycle. While seasonal patterns warrant caution, the broader setup remains favorable for large-cap crypto assets.