Key Takeaways
- Ether treasury companies are facing substantial unrealized losses, raising concerns about their financial stability.
- The trading of Ether treasury companies below their Net Asset Values (NAVs) indicates a decline in investor confidence, potentially pushing ETH prices further down.
- An ETH price fractal from 2022 suggests a possible retest of the $2,500 level, with the 200-week moving average acting as crucial support.
Ether (ETH) experienced a significant 30% decline over the past month, falling below $3,000 to a four-month low of $2,806. Bearish technical indicators and reduced institutional demand point towards a potential further correction, possibly below $2,500.
Ether Price Action Mirrors 2022 Fractal
ETH price is currently undergoing a four-week losing streak, with a bearish fractal pattern observed in 2022 suggesting a deeper correction could be on the horizon. A market fractal is a recurring pattern used by traders to identify potential trend reversals. Ether is presently exhibiting a bearish fractal setup similar to the one identified in 2022.
The pattern from 2021 involved a sharp drop from its all-time high of $4,800, eventually finding a bottom around the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). A similar scenario appears to be playing out, with Ether having dropped 41% from its recent all-time high of $4,955 reached in August. This suggests that a more significant correction is possible, with the 200-week SMA at $2,450 serving as a critical support level for buyers.
Meanwhile, Ether’s super trend indicator has issued a sell signal on its weekly chart. A similar signal in March 2025 preceded a 66% price drop, and in January 2022, an 82% price drawdown followed, bottoming out just below the 200-week SMA.
If historical patterns repeat, ETH could experience a further correction, potentially reaching as low as $2,500. This downward pressure is exacerbated by decreased institutional demand and waning on-chain activity.
Ethereum Treasury Companies Face Significant Losses
The recent sharp decline in Ether’s price has led to substantial unrealized losses for many Ether treasury companies. These companies are now reporting millions of dollars in paper losses on their ETH holdings.
📊 Data from Capriole Investments indicates that these companies have seen negative returns ranging from 25% to 48% on their ETH portfolios. The top 10 Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies are currently in the red across both weekly and daily timeframes.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, holding a substantial 3.56 million ETH (2.94% of the circulating supply), has recorded returns of -28% over the last seven days and -45% over the past 30 days. This means BitMine is currently down approximately $1,000 per purchased ETH, resulting in a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion on its total holdings.
SharpLink, The Ether Machine, and Galaxy Digital are also experiencing millions in losses, with their holdings down 50% to 80% from their yearly highs.
Erosion of Confidence and Declining Reserves
Capriole Investments’ data also highlights that the market value to net asset value (mNAV) for most of these companies has fallen below 1. This metric, which assesses the valuation of digital asset treasuries, dropping below 1 signals impaired capital-raising capabilities and a significant erosion of investor confidence.
📍 Data from StrategicETHreserve.xyz indicates a collective reduction of 280,414 ETH in strategic reserves and ETF holdings since November 11. This outflow reinforces the ongoing decline in institutional demand for ETH.
Global exchange-traded products, including US spot Ether ETFs, have experienced their largest weekly outflows since February, further confirming the reduced institutional interest in Ether.
Expert Summary
Ether’s recent price drop has put significant strain on treasury companies, leading to substantial unrealized losses and a decline in investor confidence. Technical analysis, including a 2022 fractal and sell signals from indicators, suggests further price corrections are possible, with $2,500 being a key support level. The combined impact of waning institutional demand and mounting treasury losses paints a bearish outlook for ETH in the short to medium term.
