Key Takeaways
- The EUR/USD pair is experiencing a bearish trend, influenced by increased investor demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven.
- Key support levels to watch are 1.1570, 1.1500, and 1.1430, while resistance levels are noted at 1.1670, 1.1750, and 1.1810.
- Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest a continued bearish bias for the EUR/USD.
- Upcoming economic data, including PMI and US CPI reports, alongside geopolitical factors like US-China trade tensions, will be crucial market movers.
EUR/USD Analysis Today: Bears in Control
Created on October 22, 2025
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently navigating a bearish trajectory, with selling pressure pushing the exchange rate towards the 1.1600 support level. This downward movement is largely attributed to a heightened demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, spurred by escalating US-China tensions. With no significant US economic releases scheduled for today, market participants are closely observing central bank policy signals. A notable event includes statements from ECB Governor Lagarde at 15:30 Cairo time.
Key Trading Levels for EUR/USD
- Support Levels: 1.1570 – 1.1500 – 1.1430.
- Resistance Levels: 1.1670 – 1.1750 – 1.1810.
Trading Signals for EUR/USD
- Buy EUR/USD from the 1.1520 support level, targeting 1.1800 with a stop loss at 1.1460.
- Sell EUR/USD from the 1.1730 resistance level, targeting 1.1600 with a stop loss at 1.1800.
Technical Indicators Support Bearish Outlook
Analysis of the daily chart, referencing data from reliable brokerage platforms, indicates a consistent bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair. A confirmed break below the 1.1600 support level is expected to intensify technical losses for the currency. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned around 43, validating the bearish sentiment and suggesting room for further declines before reaching oversold territory. Concurrently, the MACD indicator remains firmly within its downward-sloping range. Should the 1.1600 support falter, the next significant support levels to target are anticipated around 1.1550 and subsequently 1.1470.
Potential Bullish Scenario for EUR/USD
Conversely, without a substantial upward push towards the psychological resistance of 1.1800, a significant correctional rebound for the EUR/USD pair appears unlikely in the current timeframe. The prevailing bearish sentiment suggests that sellers are likely to maintain control over prices.
Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD
💡 In the coming days, trading in the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain highly sensitive to shifts in investor risk appetite and the evolving monetary policies of central banks.
📊 Forex trading experts are highlighting concerns stemming from France, following S&P Global Ratings’ recent downgrade of the country’s credit rating from AA- to A+ attributed to fiscal trajectory worries. Looking ahead, significant economic data releases include the PMI Business Confidence Index and the US Consumer Price Report. Market participants are also closely monitoring developments in the US banking sector, the ongoing government shutdown, and political rhetoric.
⚡ A degree of calm has recently settled over the US banking sector, contributing to gains in equity markets. Danske Bank noted strong earnings from major UK banks, which have helped stabilize investor confidence. However, ING Bank maintains a cautious stance, suggesting that while indications of lending issues being contained might offer some dollar support, it may not be sufficient to fully alleviate concerns regarding the credit market’s health or reverse all of the dollar’s recent losses.
📍 On the monetary policy front, financial markets are largely anticipating a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week, with a high probability also factored in for a further rate reduction in December. The Federal Reserve is currently in a quiet period ahead of its meeting, meaning official comments are unlikely. Therefore, any informal briefings from the media will be closely scrutinized for potential market-moving insights.
📌 Trade tensions between the United States and China continue to be a significant factor. President Trump’s recent conciliatory remarks over the weekend have sparked cautious optimism for progress in trade relations with China.
Expert Summary
The EUR/USD pair is currently underselling pressure, influenced by a combination of safe-haven demand for the USD and geopolitical tensions. Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with key support and resistance levels identified for traders. Upcoming economic data and central bank commentary will likely dictate the pair’s short-term direction.