At a Glance
- US stock indices finished mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 reaching a one-week high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a new record.
- Positiveearnings reports from companies like General Motors, 3M, RTX Corp, and Coca-Cola provided support for the broader market.
- Mining stocks experienced a downturn due to a sharp fall in gold and silver prices, while semiconductor stock weakness impacted the Nasdaq 100.
- Market attention remains fixed on US-China trade negotiations and the ongoing US government shutdown, which continues to affect economic data and investor sentiment.
- The Q3 earnings season is progressing, with a significant portion of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, though profit growth is expected to moderate.
Market Performance Review
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index closed unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a modest increase of 0.47%. The Nasdaq 100 Index concluded the session slightly lower, down 0.06%. Futures for the December E-mini S&P 500 declined by 0.05%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures fell by 0.08%.
Corporate Earnings Drive Market Movement
The stock market presented a mixed performance on Tuesday. The S&P 500 reached a weekly high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average marked a new record. Encouraging corporate news provided underlying support for the market.
General Motors’ stock surged over 14% after the company raised its full-year adjusted EPS estimate. 3M Co also saw a gain of more than 7% following an upward revision of its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations estimate. RTX Corp closed up over 7% after increasing its full-year adjusted sales projection. Coca-Cola finished the day with a gain of more than 4% after its third-quarter comparable EPS exceeded expectations.
Sector Weaknesses and Market Consolidation
On the downside, mining stocks faced selling pressure, retreating as gold prices dropped more than 5% and silver prices plunged over 7%. This decline was largely attributed to long liquidation following recent record rallies. Additionally, a downturn in semiconductor stocks weighed on the Nasdaq 100 index.
💡 Stock gains were somewhat tempered as the market consolidated after substantial advances in the preceding two trading sessions. Investors are closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade talks. President Trump reiterated his stance on potential tariff increases if a trade deal is not reached by November 1. A meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is anticipated next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
Economic Indicators and Government Shutdown Impact
In minor economic news, the Philadelphia Fed’s non-manufacturing business activity survey for October fell by 9.9 points to a four-month low of -22.2.
The US government shutdown has now entered its fourth week, creating headwinds for market sentiment and causing delays in the release of crucial economic reports. The shutdown means that key data, including the last three weeks of initial unemployment claims and the September payroll report, have been postponed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the September consumer price report, initially scheduled for release the previous Wednesday, will now be published this Friday.
The White House has indicated that a prolonged government shutdown could result in widespread dismissals of employees in government programs not aligned with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that approximately 640,000 federal workers might be furloughed, potentially increasing jobless claims and raising the unemployment rate to 4.7%.
📍 Heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the persistent government shutdown, and concerns over U.S. credit quality have fueled a surge in demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets, with gold and silver reaching new all-time highs last Friday.
Focus on Q3 Earnings Season
This week’s market focus is on the ongoing Q3 earnings season, which is providing a constructive backdrop for stocks, particularly with rising corporate earnings expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported their results so far have surpassed analyst forecasts. Furthermore, over 22% of S&P 500 companies that have issued guidance for their Q3 earnings are projected to exceed analyst expectations, marking the highest figure in a year.
However, Q3 profits are anticipated to show a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, representing the smallest gain in two years. Q3 sales growth is also projected to slow to 5.9% year-over-year, compared to 6.4% in the second quarter.
📊 Markets are currently factoring in a 97% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for October 28-29.
International Market Performance
Overseas stock markets closed higher on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 index reached a new all-time high, closing up by 0.10%. China’s Shanghai Composite saw a significant rise, closing up 1.36%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 also climbed to a new record high, ending the day up by 0.27%.
Interest Rates Update
December 10-year T-notes saw an increase on Tuesday, closing up by 5 ticks. The yield on the 10-year T-note decreased by 2.5 basis points to 3.955%.
📌 T-note prices moved higher amidst the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to increased job losses, reduced consumer spending, and a weaker US economy, potentially encouraging the Federal Reserve to continue its interest rate cuts. T-notes remained firm following the release of the October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey, which indicated a four-month low.
European government bond yields declined on Tuesday. The 10-year German bund yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 2.552%, and the 10-year UK gilt yield decreased by 2.7 basis points to 4.478%.
Swaps are discounting a 2% chance for a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next policy meeting on October 30.
Notable US Stock Movers
S&P 500 Gainers
General Motors (GM) led the S&P 500 gainers, closing up over 14%. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to a range of $9.75-$10.50, up from its prior projection of $8.25-$10.00.
Halliburton (HAL) saw gains of more than 12% after reporting Q3 revenue of $5.60 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.39 billion.
3M Co (MMM) closed up more than 7%, also leading gains among Dow Jones industrials. The company increased its full-year adjusted EPS continuing operations guidance to $7.95-$8.05 from a previous estimate of $7.75-$8.00.
RTX Corp (RTX) advanced more than 7% after revising its full-year adjusted sales estimate upward to $86.5 billion-$87.0 billion, from its earlier projection of $84.75 billion-$85.50 billion.
Danaher (DHR) finished the day higher by over 6% subsequent to reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.89, which was stronger than the consensus estimate of $1.72.
Crown Holdings (CCK) experienced a rise of more than 5% after boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.70-$7.80, up from $7.10-$7.50, and exceeding the consensus of $7.39.
Coca-Cola (KO) closed with gains of over 3% subsequent to reporting Q3 comparable EPS of 82 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 78 cents.
S&P 500 Losers
Mining stocks declined significantly on Tuesday, impacted by the sharp drop in gold and silver prices. Newmont (NEM) closed down more than 9%, leading the decliners in the S&P 500. Other mining companies such as Barrick Mining (B), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU) also closed down by over 9%.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) fell more than 17% following a downgrade by Wells Fargo Securities to underweight from equal weight, with a price target of $11.
Elevance Health (ELV) closed down more than 1%, despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 operating revenue. The company projected a modestly negative Medicaid operating margin for 2025.
Nasdaq 100 Movers
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) emerged as a top performer in the Nasdaq 100, rising over 11% after announcing a review of strategic alternatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value.
Gartner (IT) ended the day up more than 8%. Analyst William Balire expressed optimism following a demonstration of the company’s AI-powered AskGartner tool at the IT Symposium/Xpo 2025 conference.
Alphabet (GOOGL) shares declined by over 2% after OpenAI unveiled its new AI-powered web browser, intensifying competition with Alphabet’s Google search engine.
Chipmakers experienced a decline, impacting the Nasdaq 100. Micron Technology (MU) fell more than 2%. Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ASML Holding NV (ASML), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) each dropped more than 1%. Applied Materials (AMAT) closed down 0.93%, and Nvidia (NVDA) was down 0.81%.
NuScale Power (SMR) decreased by more than 13% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, setting a price target of $37.50.
Tempus AI (TEM) fell by more than 3% following a downgrade by TD Cowen from buy to hold, citing valuation concerns.
Dow Jones Movers
Verizon Communications (VZ) was among the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s top decliners, closing down more than 1%. This followed a downgrade by BNP Paribas Exane to neutral from outperform.
Upcoming Earnings Reports (October 22, 2025)
Several companies are scheduled to release their earnings reports on October 22, 2025:
- Alcoa Corp (AA)
- Amphenol Corp (APH)
- Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY)
- AT&T Inc (T)
- Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)
- Boston Scientific Corp (BSX)
- CACI International Inc (CACI)
- Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN)
- CME Group Inc (CME)
- Crown Castle Inc (CCI)
- Equity LifeStyle Properties In (ELS)
- First American Financial Corp (FAF)
- FirstEnergy Corp (FE)
- GE Vernova Inc (GEV)
- Globe Life Inc (GL)
- Graco Inc (GGG)
- Hexcel Corp (HXL)
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)
- International Business Machines (IBM)
- Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI)
- Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX)
- Lam Research Corp (LRCX)
- Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS)
- Lennox International Inc (LII)
- Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)
- Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)
- Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)
- Moody’s Corp (MCO)
- Northern Trust Corp (NTRS)
- NVR Inc (NVR)
- O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)
- Packaging Corp of America (PKG)
- QuantumScape Corp (QS)
- Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF)
- Reliance Inc (RS)
- Robert Half Inc (RHI)
- SEI Investments Co (SEIC)
- Sonoco Products Co (SON)
- Southern Copper Corp (SCCO)
- SOUTHSTATE BANK CORP (SSB)
- Southwest Airlines Co (LUV)
- Stifel Financial Corp (SF)
- Teledyne Technologies Inc (TDY)
- Tesla Inc (TSLA)
- Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO)
- Travel + Leisure Co (TNL)
- United Rentals Inc (URI)
- Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT)
- Viking Therapeutics Inc (VKTX)
- Westinghouse Air Brake Technol (WAB)
- Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc (WH)
Final Thoughts
The U.S. stock market experienced a mixed trading session as investors digested corporate earnings while navigating ongoing economic uncertainties. Positive earnings from several key companies provided a lift, but concerns over trade tensions and the government shutdown continue to influence market sentiment.
The market is expected to remain focused on the Q3 earnings season and developments in U.S.-China trade relations in the coming days.