Key Takeaways
- Strategy holds approximately 650,000 BTC, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
- The company’s strategy depends on raising capital and converting it to BTC while maintaining a market-cap-to-Bitcoin value (mNAV) above 1.
- CEO Phong Le considers Bitcoin sales a last resort, only if mNAV drops below 1 and new capital is hard to get.
- Even if Strategy sells some BTC, the Bitcoin market’s high daily trading volume means any sale would likely be targeted, not a full exit.
Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, has become the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company over the past five years.
As of early December 2025, Strategy held almost 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), over 3% of the total 21 million supply, making it the biggest holding among public companies.
Many investors see Strategy’s stock as a leveraged way to invest in Bitcoin. They choose the stock because the company raises capital and converts it into Bitcoin.
The current discussion is based on CEO Phong Le’s recent statements about a possible Bitcoin sale under certain conditions. While headlines highlight the word sell, the company views it as a risk management strategy for extreme situations, rather than a change in their long-term Bitcoin strategy.
This article explains how the plan works and what could trigger sales, helping readers understand future news with a rational perspective. This guide is for informational purposes only, not financial advice.
💡 Did you know? Institutions now hold nearly 20% of all mined Bitcoin.
Understanding Strategy’s Bitcoin Acquisition Strategy
Strategy operates on a relatively straightforward financial model:
- Raises capital through common stock, perpetual preferred stock (e.g., STRK and STRF), and occasionally convertible debt.
- Uses most of that capital to buy more Bitcoin, its primary treasury reserve asset.
- Tracks metrics to assess the sustainability and benefit to shareholders.
Two key metrics are important:
- Bitcoin per share (BPS): The amount of BTC backing each fully diluted share. Strategy reports this as a key performance indicator.
- Market-cap-to-net-asset-value (mNAV): The ratio of Strategy’s total market value to its Bitcoin holdings’ market value. An mNAV above 1 means the stock trades at a premium to its BTC.
When the company’s mNAV is high, it can issue new equity or preferred stock more easily, increasing its Bitcoin holdings. Management aims to continue this model of raising capital at a premium, buying more BTC, and increasing BPS.
📍 Insight: Strategy’s mNAV is a crucial indicator. A high mNAV allows for easier capital raising, fueling further Bitcoin acquisitions. Monitoring this ratio is essential for understanding the company’s financial health.
The Last Resort Bitcoin Sale Trigger
What’s new is a clearly defined contingency plan for this model.
In recent interviews, CEO Le stated that Strategy would consider selling some Bitcoin only if two conditions occur simultaneously:
- mNAV falls below 1, meaning the company’s market cap equals or drops below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
- Access to new capital becomes restricted, for instance, if investors are unwilling to buy its equity or preferred stock at reasonable terms.
He described selling BTC in this situation as a last resort to meet obligations like preferred dividends, not a plan to liquidate their Bitcoin treasury.
Simply put, if the stock price is at or below the value of its BTC, and the company cannot refinance, selling some BTC becomes the best option to protect the overall financial structure.
✅ Key Point: Strategy views selling Bitcoin as a measure of last resort, only to be considered when mNAV is below 1 and access to fresh capital is limited.
Factors That Could Push Strategy to Sell Bitcoin
Several factors must align before Strategy even considers its last resort option.
Macro Conditions and Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin has already declined sharply from its October high near $126,000 to the mid-$80,000s, a roughly 30% decrease. Significant or extended drops reduce the value of Strategy’s BTC holdings and tend to negatively affect its stock price.
Equity Performance and mNAV
Strategy’s market cap premium over its Bitcoin holdings has decreased after a 30%-60% drop in the stock from earlier highs. In mid-November, the company’s stock briefly traded around or even below the value of its Bitcoin, suggesting an mNAV near 1.
Funding Conditions
Strategy’s business depends on its ability to issue new common and perpetual preferred shares through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. A sharp slowdown in these offerings or significantly higher yield demands from investors would indicate funding difficulties.
Internal Obligations
Strategy has substantial annual obligations in preferred dividends and debt service. Analysts estimate preferred dividend obligations in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
Management maintains its long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy, and the previously mentioned scenarios represent severe stress conditions.
📊 Analytical Insight: Monitoring Bitcoin prices, Strategy’s stock performance, and the company’s ability to raise capital are key to assessing the likelihood of a Bitcoin sale.
💡 Did you know? An estimated 3 million to 4 million BTC are likely permanently lost in inactive wallets, reducing the available supply.
Implications of a Strategy Bitcoin Sale
Given that Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, any change from a never sell to a might sell under stress stance naturally attracts attention from traders.
However, it’s vital to consider the context:
- Market size: Bitcoin’s daily spot and derivatives trading volume often reaches tens of billions of dollars. Also, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen single-day inflows and outflows of billions. A controlled sale of a portion of Strategy’s holdings would enter a vast and liquid market.
- Likely scale and pace: Based on CEO Le’s statements, any sale during a stress scenario would be targeted and partial, aimed at meeting obligations or maintaining capital structure, rather than liquidating their Bitcoin holdings.
- Pricing in advance: Markets often begin to factor in these possibilities upon disclosure. The recent declines in both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock, along with discussions about mNAV, illustrate this process.
It’s important to remember that a conditional, last-resort sale framework differs significantly from announcing imminent large-scale BTC sales.
📌 Reminder: A potential last resort sale framework doesn’t automatically signal imminent large BTC sales. Context and conditions are crucial.
💡 Did you know? In Q3 2025, average daily crypto spot trading volume was about $155 billion, and another $14 billion in notional crypto derivatives traded daily on CME alone.
Tracking Strategy’s Future Decisions
To follow this story effectively, focus on observable indicators rather than reacting to every headline:
Start with primary sources:
- Review US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, like 8-Ks and prospectus supplements, for information on new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
- Check Strategy’s press releases and its Bitcoin Purchases page for summaries of recent acquisitions and total holdings.
Monitor core metrics:
- Track Bitcoin per share (BPS) to understand the Bitcoin backing each share.
- Monitor the market-cap-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio to gauge the company’s premium relative to its Bitcoin holdings.
Social media often reflects sentiment, not data. While green dot posts and doomsday threads can indicate market mood, verify claims using official filings and data.
⚡ Action Tip: Prioritize official SEC filings and Strategy’s announcements over social media sentiment when tracking the company’s Bitcoin strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions about Strategy and Bitcoin
Will Strategy definitely sell its Bitcoin?
No, Strategy will only consider selling Bitcoin as a last resort option if its market capitalization falls to or below the value of its Bitcoin holdings (mNAV below 1) and it cannot raise new capital.
What happens if Strategy’s MNAV drops below 1?
If Strategy’s mNAV drops below 1 and the company cannot access fresh capital, management may consider selling a portion of its Bitcoin to meet obligations and maintain the company’s financial structure. This would be a targeted sale, not a complete exit from Bitcoin.
How can I stay updated on Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings?
To stay updated, monitor Strategy’s official press releases and SEC filings (8-Ks and prospectus supplements). These documents provide information on capital raises and Bitcoin holdings.
How would a Strategy Bitcoin sale impact the market?
While Strategy holds a significant amount of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin market is very liquid with tens of billions in daily trading volume. A controlled, partial sale by Strategy would likely be absorbed by the market without major disruption.
Final Thoughts on Strategy’s Bitcoin Strategy
Strategy’s large Bitcoin holdings make its strategy a key point of interest in the cryptocurrency world. By focusing on primary sources and key metrics like mNAV, investors can better understand the company’s position and potential actions.
Although a Bitcoin sale isn’t Strategy’s primary goal, understanding the conditions that might trigger such a decision is crucial for investors. Keep an eye on market conditions, funding access, and internal obligations to gauge the company’s next moves.
