At a Glance
- USD may reach 152.25 before facing increased pullback risks.
- The outlook for USD is mixed in the longer term.
- Current trading is expected to remain between 150.00 and 153.00.
- Recent sharp movements have created a volatile trading environment.
USD Outlook and Short-Term Forecast
The US Dollar (USD) shows potential to test the 152.25 level. However, this upward movement is coupled with an increasing risk of a pullback. In the broader, longer-term perspective, the outlook for the USD is considered mixed. Analysts suggest that for the immediate future, the USD might trade within a range of 150.00 to 153.00.
💡 The 24-hour view indicates that the initial expectation of USD trading sideways between 150.00 and 151.00 was incorrect. The currency experienced a significant surge, reaching a high of 152.17.
⚡ While the recent sharp rise appears somewhat excessive, there remains scope for the USD to test a level of 152.25. Beyond this point, the probability of a pullback is expected to rise.
📌 It is not anticipated that the major resistance level at 153.00 will be encountered in the immediate short term. On the downside, a break below 151.10, with a minor support at 151.40, would suggest a shift towards range-trading rather than further advances towards 152.25.
Medium-Term USD Trends and Analysis
In a previous assessment from Friday, October 17th, when the USD was trading at 150.15, it was noted that the odds of a clear break below 149.50 were increasing. Following this, the USD did decline, reaching a low of 149.36 before staging a strong rebound.
📍 Yesterday, October 21st, with the spot price at 150.55, the analysis highlighted that downward momentum had decelerated. However, as long as the significant resistance level at 151.35 was not breached, there was a possibility for the USD to retest the 149.35 level.
📊 Contrary to expectations of staying below 151.35, the USD experienced a significant rally, reaching an intraday high of 152.17. These recent sharp, albeit short-lived, price swings have contributed to a mixed outlook for the currency.
📊 Consequently, the current expectation is that the USD will likely trade within the boundaries of 150.00 and 153.00 for the present period.
Expert Summary
UOB Group’s FX analysts, Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia, observe that the US Dollar has room to test 152.25 before facing increased pullback risks. The longer-term outlook for USD is mixed, with current expectations placing it between 150.00 and 153.00.